As many things in life, the real outcome is far from the desired. But sometimes you have to make a bet in the name of heart and passion.
Germany won the first quarter final game against Argentina. That broke my bet with a final between Argentina and Brazil and a bronze game between England and Italy. It now looks like we'll have a Brazil - Germany final.
It was a nail biting game. The first half was slightly dominated by Argentina and the second half got off to a great start with a goal by Ayala 46 minutes into the game. Then Argentina started to play too defensive and let the Germans roll over them. The Germans are great at using their strong will and brute force to turn things around. And by God did they want to win this time.
Argentina came back nicely but it wasn't enough. Unfortunately El Pato got hurt and had to be replaced and that gave the Germans a great opportunity to even the score. The odds changed pretty quickly after that eventhough I think that the Argentina team played much more fun football. Their talent, passion and heart fell short of brute force, strong will and having the advantage of being the host country. Okay, okay - I'm being petty...
Friday, June 30, 2006
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Ølsen - Pure BA Nouveau With A Scandi Touch
Ølsen is a well designed Northern European inspired restaurant in Palermo Hollywood. It's located in an old warehouse with a big welcoming patio. They serve vodka shots and their dishes are all served with a Scandinavian touch.
Ølsen has probably the coolest open patio in all of BA; very loungy with comfortable low chairs with leather seats. The interior design is very 70s James Bond with a fireplace and a metal chimney in the middle of the restaurant. The furniture is vintage Scandinavian.
They serve a 3-course lunch with a beer or a bottle of water for AR$20 per person. The dishes are often very eclectic. Today I had smoked salmon on top of a waffle with cream sauce, papas and a potato salad with avacado and boiled eggs. The Missus had the same except a risotto instead of the salmon.
As most of our favorite Boho restaurants in BA, Ølsen offers a bunch of fashion and pop culture magazines as an after lunch treat which extends the stay in this really comfortable and inspired enviroment. We are really looking forward to go there for dinner.
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
The World is Full of Philistines
"The Philistine not only ignores all conditions of life which are not his own but also demands that the rest of mankind should fashion its mode of existence after his own." - Goethe
I've travelled enough to know a Philistine from a true Traveler. Philistine tourists (fanny pack, shorts, trainers, white socks, cap, loud, demanding et cetera) add to the local economic activity by infusing new money into the system but thats it. It's a pure economic transaction. They view world as their playground, expecting people to cater to their needs driven by the price of things. The core expectation is that anything can be bought. They are always on the outside looking in.
A true Traveler - with bohemian qualities - on the other hand is breathing the true air of life. It's not about being serviced but connecting to the everyday life. It's about taking part, being humble, sharing and contributing. It's about being equal on a human level with whomever you meet. It's about an appreciation for life and not for being pampered. It's about a curiosity that extends beyond normality.
Life is full of Philistines with the sole ambition to solitify their position in the race for a middle class life full of percieved richness. They will do anything to impose their self-imagined superiority.
It's sad to watch but it's also what gives energy to counter culture reactions. But it's not just an anti-reaction but a voice of reason. Should money really be the currency in which we measure success, value and progress?
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Brazil // France
Today we headed up early to have enough time to get breakfast before the 12pm game Brazil - Ghana. I cannot explain it but I'm comletely obessed by the current World Cup. There is so much passion and energy that is rubbing off on me.
The Brazil game was - as expected - a great football party. The Brazlians are so confident, playful and superior that there was no doubt who was going to win. The Ghana team did put up a great resistance though and played very well. Big kudos!
We took off for lunch once the Brazil - Ghana game had ended. We took the normal route: Avenida Las heras via Plaza Italia to El Diamante on Malabia. They served a great sauted veggie starter with an Ojo de Bife con Papas as main course. Delish!
We knew that Bar 6 on Armenia had a 42-inch plasma screen and headed over there to enjoy the second game of the day at 4pm. Crazily enough, the place was half empty and we grabbed the big purple sofa and a glas of red wine. There are few places left in the world where you can sip on one glas of wine and watch a football game for two hours without getting kicked out. Bar 6 is one of them. Recommended.
The French win came as a bigger surprise. My bet was on the Spaniards but they only succeeded to score on a penalty. The French played fenominally. Zidane, Henry, Rivery, Vieira, Sagnol et al were brilliant. The played on par with the Spainards during the first half but then accelerated into a league of their own in the second half.
The Missus and I really need the two days break before the quarter finals are starting this weekend. There are so many things we haven't seen yet and not being tied up for 4 hrs a day in front of the TV will definitely help.
My semi finalists still stand: Brazil, Italy, England and Argentina. That said, I hope I'm wrong and that we'll get a few surprises. As long as it's not Argentina since that would bum out our friends down here. I was in Venice in 2000 at the Eurocup final between France and Italy. I've never seen anyone so bummed out as the Italians after the defeat. Venice just died.
Monday, June 26, 2006
The Travel Guide I'd Like to Read
Everyone wants to travel. Everyone wants to write. Everyone wants to be a travel writer.
Travel writing is probably the most underestimated occupation in the world. Everyone and his uncle thinks he can do it better. Yours truly included.
Over the past 25 years of traveling the globe, I've lost count of how many times and how many people I have talked, brainstormed and dreamt about living off travel writing.
And yet, I have not found a good travel guide that meet my needs. They are in general, too general, trying to satisfy to many traveler's needs. Most of them cater to tourists, not travelers, and cover things that not even locals would recommend you to do. I call them guides to the Disneyland you'll never want to visit.
Who wants to be a tourist? A tourist to me is someone that is disconnected, travel in herds and wears a fanny pack. It's an ignorant observer who pays for excitement and casual insights. To be a tourist in life is a sad occupation.
I think they reason why there are no good travel guides is - as stated above - the general assumption is wrong. Travelers are no longer only foreigners, tourists or everyday sheep. A lot of people speak more than one language, have grown up, studied or worked in a 'foreign' country. The world is truly flat to them.
I'd like to experience a new city the same way as I experience my own: going to the bakery for bread, reading the newspaper at the coffee shop and grabbing dinner at a cool restaurant with great food. I don't need a travel nanny but someone that can give me directions to the things I'm interested in (music, movies, books, wine, cooking, food, bohemia, architecture et cetera).
The key is that a travel guide should be nothing less of a local guide and that's why I like the Time Out guides. They treat you, the reader, (almost) as a local. Sure, they need to attract a mass audience but all-in-all they do a pretty good job.
That said, I see a future in nisch guides that caters much more to personal interests than sights / attractions. Like Nota Bene (luxury guides) or The Other Side (guides for the clubbing aficionado).
Traveling is not about the ultimate experience but the experience that fits your desires, needs and interests. If you love food, then you want to know the good restaurants in Paris and could care less about the Mona Lisa, Eiffel Tour or Place Vendôme.
I guess that every civilization learns the things they need to know. That opens up for business opportunities.
Sunday, June 25, 2006
Work to See The World
The most popular way to differentiate between people's view on life is to differentiate their work motive into two different beliefs: work to live or live to work.
Lots of people get sucked into the Lutheran belief that if you work hard you'll do the right thing, reach success and end up in heaven. In a corporate enviroment working hard is suicide, it's all about working smart and realize that Machiavelli was right. But if you believe in heaven - go for it.
Work to live sounds much more hedonistic and secular. It's actually the way that most people have survived throughout the history of the world. You work to survive, put food on the table and clothes on the bodies. What else is there? Right, the social ladder.
I see it this way: If I was the big kahuna, I would want my people to work hard, believe in loyalty and consume as much of my products as possible. I would encourage anything that would make my kingdom richer and more powerful. If that was to believe in God or in McDonald's - wouldn't matter.
Enters the third perspective. Mine. I work to enrich my live through the eyes of the world. I would avoid all social traps and beliefs of things that you have to have to be 'happy', live a fulfilled life and be successful.
I'm not that smart but I still can see that the middle class was the best thing that has ever happened to the rich and the powerful in the world. I mean, do you really want Paris Hilton to be the next president?
The City of Bookstores
It's raining in Buenos Aires (BA). Most people are sleeping in after the victorious game against Mexico yesterday. The streets are pretty empty and most stores are closed. It's Sunday and time to rest.
The pleasure of living in the center of one of the biggest cosmopolitan city in the world is that you don't need a car, everything is so accessible and you share your life with people from all walks of life. The latter is very important.
Once the England - Ecuador (1-0) game was over, we walked down to El Ateneo - the bookstore on Avenida Santa Fe - to grab some breakfast. At 2pm I might add (life here is lazy).
El Ateneo is one of the many, many bookstores in BA. I've no data that support this but my impression is that BA has the most bookstores per capita in the world. What makes El Ateneo special is that it's located in an old theater, with the coffee shop all the way in the back.
It's a heaven on earth for a bibliophile and polyglot. I can spend hours just browsing through the aisles, picking up books I've never seen and just forgetting about the world outside.
I was surprised by seeing a few of the books I've on my wishlist on Amazon.com (in English) being offered at a 25-50% discount in Spanish. That means that I can kill two birds with one stone at a rebate. These kind of arbitrary opportunities doesn't come around that often. Once the middle class knows more than one language and is indifferent to what language they use to consume knowledge this opportunity will disappear.
Saturday, June 24, 2006
The Essence of Travels
Why do people travel when it would be more comfortable to stay home, enjoying a known and secure enviroment and save the hard earned money for 'better' things? Is it the desire to flee from the regular daily demands that the everyday enviroment imposes? Or is it just the lust to discover new places, people and cultures?
I ask myself the same thing everytime I press the buy button on Travelocity.com, United.com or Kayak.com. Why would you want to leave someting that is secure and good for something unknown and in many cases is an uncalculated risk? The risk-reward ratio is known and easily calculated in your comfort zone but becomes very volatile once you are outside that zone.
I know, I know - I'm leading you on. It's all about the uncalculated risk. Most people are okay with risk as long as it can be calculatd. But if you can calculate a risk that also means that the upside is limited.
The cool thing with traveling is that you'll never know what you might encounter. Every trip is a blank sheet that needs to be scribbled on. The pleasure of visiting a new city for the first time is awesome. If you have done your homework you'll know a few things but never enough to prepare you for that new experience.
Everyday is like being reborn, having the pleasure of starting over with a clean slate. Just finding a place to have breakfast at has it challenges. All your regular routines are being turned upside-down.
Traveling is the best cure for suburban boredom. Done right, it's the antithesis of calculated risk. It makes you more humble, more understanding and less of a know-it-all. It forces you to be open-minded and not take anything for granted. Traveling might make you really wise, in due time, if you are prepared to listen and learn.
Argentina - Mexico (2-1)
We went to La Chulita on Rodriguez Peña for a late lunch just before the big game. Before we knew it, the whole place was empty and we realized that the game had started. As much as we wanted to watch the game, we also wanted to walk around the central parts of the city to see if we could get some cool shots of people watching the game in public places. We did!
Most stores closed early and the ones that had to be opened were empty except for the staff who were glued to the TVs. At Masimundo (music and electronics store) we were almost greeted with a slight contempt. Who in there right mind a) is not watching the game and b) dare to drag the attention from the staff from the TV to attending their personal consumption needs? We just had to leave.
On the walk from Avenida Santa Fe to our pad we passed several hair dressers, restaurants and mini-mercados where people were focused on the TV screens as if we had come to the end of days. Most were dressed in the Argentina jerseys and some had their faces painted in light blue and white.
This is one of the top games of the World Cup, the others being Brazil - Spain, England - Portugal, and the semi-finals where I think we'll have Argentina, Brazil, England and Italy. The dream final would be Brazil - Argentina. Sorry, Alex, I don't think Les Bleus have it in them this time. Henry is too much of a whiner.
Friday, June 23, 2006
The Happiness of Discovery
Buenos Aires is one of the best cities in the world to discover by foot. Sure, some destinations are sometimes a little far away but most everything is within walking distance if you live in Recoleta, Barrio Norte or Palermo and have the luxury of time.
We live in Recoleta, on the border of Barrio Norte, right by Avenida de Las Heras. From there it's a straight shot to Plaza Italia and then down Thames to Placa Serrano in Palermo Viejo. It takes about an hour by foot to get there from our pad and that's what we did today.
We started on Pechego de Melo and walked towards Parque Las Heras and found several very interesting restaurants that we memorized local and menu. Once on Avenida de Las Heras the restaurants were fewer and the traffic much more intense until we got to Plaza Italia. There we decided to pake a pit stop at one of the many book stores in town, on Thames, and then down to Social Paraiso on Honduras for lunch.
They serve a fantastic 2-course lunch menu for 14 pesos (US$ 4.50). Today we could choose between an onion soup or quesedilla w/ salad for starter and a veggie wok or chicken breast wrapped in prosciutto w/ mashed potatoes. It was, as always delish.
After lunch, which also included a glas of wine, water and a cortadito, we walked around the Palermo Soho streets for a while and then headed back towards Recoleta via Avenida Santa Fe and Avenida Coronel Diaz. Just in time for our daily siesta!
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
When The Streets Are Empty
There are few occasions in the world when big city streets are completely empty on a weekday afternoon. I can only think of after an earthquake, during a heavy snow storm and when there is World Cup football on TV.
It's hard for non-football nations to fathom how important and big football is in the world. For many people, especially in Latin and Northern European countries, it's the biggest event - ever. There are people that live, love and die for football, everything else is secondary.
The success in the World Cup means glory and a solid boost to the cultural and national self-esteem and is talked about for years, even decades. France win against the 5-time champion Brazil on their own soil in 1998 gave the French ego a super boost.
A losing result is on the other hand devastating. Just look at The Netherlands loss against West Germany in 1974 or France - the World Cup holder - not even getting to the round of sixteen in 2002. Both countries experienced a state of national chock and humiliation that is far from forgotten.
The streets in Buenos Aires turned empty yesterday for the very same reason. It started already at lunch, when we noticed that one of our favorite lunch restaurants were sporting empty seats due to the Portugal - Mexico game. Most people on Avenida Santa Fe were crowded outside electronics stores to watch the TVs in the windows. You might think that it was only young male, somewhat drunk and loud aficinados with football jerseys on. Oh no, footboll in Argentina is as serious as religion. It could have been a Sunday mass they broadcasted.
Later on, at around 4pm local time, when we got closer to the usually so bustling Palermo Viejo we realized yet again that the streets were empty. This time due to the Argentina - Netherlands game. We could not find a soul outside. Everyone and their uncle were either at home or at a restaurant / bar watching the game. Even the few stores, that were actually opened, had the staff congregated in front of a TV.
And on Saturday we have the classic Argentina - Mexico game at 4pm. Since we are now in the round of sixteen Argentina needs to win to continue to the quarter final against either Germany or Sweden. Those games will surely once again empty the otherwise so crowded cosmopolitan streets.
Arrival - Buenos Aires
We arrived at Buenos Aires International Airport this morning after a very easy and straight forward flight. Total travel time from apartment (SF) to apartment (BA) was about 20 hrs. The short layover in DC was brilliant, enough time to just grab some donuts, a coffee and then board.
The movies on the plane were rather mundaine but I still watched three of them before I feel asleep after having Klein's Piaf roastbeef sandwich. Yum!
We have a sunny blue sky with a crispy feeling in the air to welcome the first day of winter. The temperature is low 60's with a daily low of low 40's. Couldn't ask for more.
We are now settled in our BA pad and getting ready to enjoy our first lunch of many. I'm looking forward to an Ojo de Bife and some wine to really celebrate that we are back in this wonderful city. Luego!
Sunday, June 18, 2006
Past // Future
Instead of going to a city to re-live the past, why not go to a city to experience the future.
Slave-2-Shopping
Isn't the best feeling in the world to throw away old stuff? I mean, to just get rid of things that don't work, are used or simply broken. Sometimes you wonder why you got them in the first place: need, impulse, hedging or just the desire to have more?
I've come up with a few rules before buying anything these days to avoid becoming a pack rat or a slave to shopping. The first one is simple: things need to break before replaced. The second is: There needs to be a true need for a product that really solves the problem long-term and that feels 110% right. Rules out most things, doesn't it.
The best thing with this rigid system? It saves time and money. Hhm, wonder if I could capitalize on this concept by selling it to other people... The Cheapskate Inc... anyone...?
I've come up with a few rules before buying anything these days to avoid becoming a pack rat or a slave to shopping. The first one is simple: things need to break before replaced. The second is: There needs to be a true need for a product that really solves the problem long-term and that feels 110% right. Rules out most things, doesn't it.
The best thing with this rigid system? It saves time and money. Hhm, wonder if I could capitalize on this concept by selling it to other people... The Cheapskate Inc... anyone...?
Saturday, June 17, 2006
The Love For Adventure
The departure for our third trip to Buenos Aires is getting closer and I'm having a hard time containing my excitement. This time we plan to visit an Estancia outside of BA - either Las Viboras or Santa Rita - and ski / snowboard (if my hip holds) in Las Leñas in the Andes. We are also looking at visits to El Tigre, Santiago and Rio de Janeiro.
The packing for trips these days is very simple. Anything that fits into my 22-inch roller will get to visit new parts of the world. Anything that doesn't, gets to stay home. I don't differentiate between home and away anymore.
Away is just another home so I try to pick the key things I really need to survive: shirts, slacks, trainers, toiletry, laptop, iPod, different cords, bluetooth VoIP-phone, AV-cable and the digital camera. As you can see, it's all about staying cool, comfortable and connected.
I realize that my approach is very unorthodox since I don't try to hedge my packing for any and all anticipated occasions. I just believe that a clean shirt, a pair of comfortable shoes and a book to read when you get stranded, will get you far. At least you have something interesting to talk about, right.
Therefore we are spending our last days in San Francisco enjoying the weather and not thinking about packing or overplanning. It should take about 15-20 minutes Tuesday morning, right before the cab arrives. That's what I call first class travel.
The packing for trips these days is very simple. Anything that fits into my 22-inch roller will get to visit new parts of the world. Anything that doesn't, gets to stay home. I don't differentiate between home and away anymore.
Away is just another home so I try to pick the key things I really need to survive: shirts, slacks, trainers, toiletry, laptop, iPod, different cords, bluetooth VoIP-phone, AV-cable and the digital camera. As you can see, it's all about staying cool, comfortable and connected.
I realize that my approach is very unorthodox since I don't try to hedge my packing for any and all anticipated occasions. I just believe that a clean shirt, a pair of comfortable shoes and a book to read when you get stranded, will get you far. At least you have something interesting to talk about, right.
Therefore we are spending our last days in San Francisco enjoying the weather and not thinking about packing or overplanning. It should take about 15-20 minutes Tuesday morning, right before the cab arrives. That's what I call first class travel.
Friday, June 16, 2006
Calling The Bottom is a Fools Game
If I could get a cent for everyone that called a market bottom and failed I'd be a billionaire.
We are far from being out of the woods. All the indicies are way down and the Wednesday revearsal needs to be confirmed as a real rally by price and volume. The beginning of next week will be crucial. If we don't see the markets rally on strong volume our third attempted rally will be killed. One wonder, how many do you need to realize we are heading into a recession?
The 11000 level is irrelevant in a downtrend. The fact that the Dow bounced off the resistance at the 11040 level showd that this week's bounce was merely technical. You want the Dow to get passed 11100-11150. The Dow needs to make new higher highs and new higher lows. Only a follow-through of 1.7% or more on strong volume would confirm the current attempted rally.
The probability that the Fed will raise the rate on June 28-29 is 100%. Another rate hike on August 8 is also very likely. We have had 3 consecutive months of 0.3% growth in core inflation which computes to above 3% on a yearly basis. That's far beyond the target of 1-2%. My guess is that we are heading to an interst rate of 6% by end of year to contain the inflation and keep the dollar alive.
Traders LOVE volatility. The past 5 weeks have kicked ass. A trader doesn't really take any sides except where the money is flowing. This is a trader's market.
In other words, I highly doubt that the market has bottomed but that is actually irrevelant. Bottom fishing and top picking is for losers. There is actually no value in a bottom or a top except that it creates false hope that is tradable. You trade the meat of the run, not the ends.
We are far from being out of the woods. All the indicies are way down and the Wednesday revearsal needs to be confirmed as a real rally by price and volume. The beginning of next week will be crucial. If we don't see the markets rally on strong volume our third attempted rally will be killed. One wonder, how many do you need to realize we are heading into a recession?
The 11000 level is irrelevant in a downtrend. The fact that the Dow bounced off the resistance at the 11040 level showd that this week's bounce was merely technical. You want the Dow to get passed 11100-11150. The Dow needs to make new higher highs and new higher lows. Only a follow-through of 1.7% or more on strong volume would confirm the current attempted rally.
The probability that the Fed will raise the rate on June 28-29 is 100%. Another rate hike on August 8 is also very likely. We have had 3 consecutive months of 0.3% growth in core inflation which computes to above 3% on a yearly basis. That's far beyond the target of 1-2%. My guess is that we are heading to an interst rate of 6% by end of year to contain the inflation and keep the dollar alive.
Traders LOVE volatility. The past 5 weeks have kicked ass. A trader doesn't really take any sides except where the money is flowing. This is a trader's market.
In other words, I highly doubt that the market has bottomed but that is actually irrevelant. Bottom fishing and top picking is for losers. There is actually no value in a bottom or a top except that it creates false hope that is tradable. You trade the meat of the run, not the ends.
Recessionary Thoughts
I realize the need to break out of the daily routine and get perspective is worth a million. Life is a force of nature and humans wants to control and manage that force until it fits in with all the rules and constrictions we can think of.
I prefer volatile times since it creates opportunities and prevents the more risk averse to make bets, take sides and contain creativity. Creativity is an act of rebellion against the current paradigm which is often seen as an insult but yet, it's an important step towards human development. Always challenge the contemporary thoughts.
My mind is getting more attracted towards the art world as days go by in slacker-land. Writing, painting, thinking, expressing et cetera is becoming one of my favorite pastimes. I wouldn't argue that it creates any financial value in the short-term but definitely a lot of satisfaction and perspective. But I've always been attracted to the bohemian life, counter culture and innovative rebels (even marketers).
I ran into a very cool music group called Masseratti 2lts (dos litros). They are from Venezuela and play a kind of downbeat music with a very strong global message that I like. I can really recommend their CD "Folklore No-Tradicional Venezolano #4". "COPLA.te en MI a Choroni" has become one of my favorite songs, perfect for the afternoon siesta.
I truly hope we are heading into a recession. I know, it sounds weird that you want the economy to grow slower, things to become more expensive and stock prices to go down but there is a very valid reason. Recessions are creative, they force people to be frugal, to think beyond the concept of earn-and-spend and they make the smaller things in life matter.
It's important to take your mind of money-making and enjoy life. Recessions tend to do that, make us more open-minded and less fearful. Think about it! Try to name a great company that was created on the heights of a strong economy. I know, it's hard. Most of them are creations of love in times of trouble. I don't think that will ever change!
I prefer volatile times since it creates opportunities and prevents the more risk averse to make bets, take sides and contain creativity. Creativity is an act of rebellion against the current paradigm which is often seen as an insult but yet, it's an important step towards human development. Always challenge the contemporary thoughts.
My mind is getting more attracted towards the art world as days go by in slacker-land. Writing, painting, thinking, expressing et cetera is becoming one of my favorite pastimes. I wouldn't argue that it creates any financial value in the short-term but definitely a lot of satisfaction and perspective. But I've always been attracted to the bohemian life, counter culture and innovative rebels (even marketers).
I ran into a very cool music group called Masseratti 2lts (dos litros). They are from Venezuela and play a kind of downbeat music with a very strong global message that I like. I can really recommend their CD "Folklore No-Tradicional Venezolano #4". "COPLA.te en MI a Choroni" has become one of my favorite songs, perfect for the afternoon siesta.
I truly hope we are heading into a recession. I know, it sounds weird that you want the economy to grow slower, things to become more expensive and stock prices to go down but there is a very valid reason. Recessions are creative, they force people to be frugal, to think beyond the concept of earn-and-spend and they make the smaller things in life matter.
It's important to take your mind of money-making and enjoy life. Recessions tend to do that, make us more open-minded and less fearful. Think about it! Try to name a great company that was created on the heights of a strong economy. I know, it's hard. Most of them are creations of love in times of trouble. I don't think that will ever change!
Thursday, June 15, 2006
So Was I Wrong?
Well, after two weeks of downtrend the Nasdaq and the Dow finally gave in for a bounce. It started yesterday afternoon and continued with accelerated force today. The volume was average but Dow was up 1.8% and the Nasdaq up 2.8%. Are things back to normal bullishness?
Nope, not even close. The Dow was down almost 1000 pts (8.5%) and the Nasdaq 300 pts (13%) before the bounce. The bounce today was technical, reacting to short-term oversold indicators. We won't know if it has any legs until next week when we'll need to see a follow-through with conviction.
Today gave hope to the retail longs, gave the comfort that the past weeks downtrend was an overreaction. Unfortunately, these kind of bounces are used by institutions to sell into and I think we can expect a continuing downtrend from here if we don't get the follow-through.
So what's bathering everyone? Well, there is a high probability that we are heading into a recession. Interest rates are going higher, probably to at least 5.5% by as early as August 8. The Beige Book indicated a pullback in real estate, a weakness in business growth, higher manufacturing prices and a weaker consumer spending. The problem with these statistics is that they are lagging which often results in that the Fed is overdoing the rate increases. That's the current fear.
Then we have the rest of the world which is raising interest rates to cool the growth both in Europe, Japan and the emerging markets. That will contribute to a lower dollar since the US is not the only place that will offer a high risk free interest rate. So who is going to finance all the debt? Devaluation.
Until I see a solid follow-through I'll be on the bearish side, waiting for new short entries. Commodities and gold looks really good at these levels since they are in a cyclical bull market. I just want them to confirm the bottom. The dollar is to early to short and equities needs to show much more strength to be bullish. Cash is still king.
Nope, not even close. The Dow was down almost 1000 pts (8.5%) and the Nasdaq 300 pts (13%) before the bounce. The bounce today was technical, reacting to short-term oversold indicators. We won't know if it has any legs until next week when we'll need to see a follow-through with conviction.
Today gave hope to the retail longs, gave the comfort that the past weeks downtrend was an overreaction. Unfortunately, these kind of bounces are used by institutions to sell into and I think we can expect a continuing downtrend from here if we don't get the follow-through.
So what's bathering everyone? Well, there is a high probability that we are heading into a recession. Interest rates are going higher, probably to at least 5.5% by as early as August 8. The Beige Book indicated a pullback in real estate, a weakness in business growth, higher manufacturing prices and a weaker consumer spending. The problem with these statistics is that they are lagging which often results in that the Fed is overdoing the rate increases. That's the current fear.
Then we have the rest of the world which is raising interest rates to cool the growth both in Europe, Japan and the emerging markets. That will contribute to a lower dollar since the US is not the only place that will offer a high risk free interest rate. So who is going to finance all the debt? Devaluation.
Until I see a solid follow-through I'll be on the bearish side, waiting for new short entries. Commodities and gold looks really good at these levels since they are in a cyclical bull market. I just want them to confirm the bottom. The dollar is to early to short and equities needs to show much more strength to be bullish. Cash is still king.
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Sentiments
Overcast. Mellow yellow. Sauted onions. Life. Sky. Sounds. Movies. Clean surface. Bolognese. Garlic. Extra memory. Hope. Fear. Challenge. Future. Life. Plans. Travels. Desires. Fear.
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
The Bear Market
Well, since I last posted about the markets about a week ago the Dow is down 226 points. There has been two rally attempts since the downtrend started on May 10 - May 24 and June 8. Both have been killed by bears. Actually they have been killed back the lack of bulls.
The few bulls that are left are arguing funnymentals, FMV (fair market value), growing GDP and fire sale. It's not the first time. In the end of a secular bull market the revenue and earnings growth still *seem* to grow. The analysts are still bullish, promoting the companies that their investment firms are doing business with. The issue *upgrades* when it's time for bigger clients to dump their stocks.
But, the macros always beats the micros. The markets are slowly realizing that the US economy needs higher interest rates to fight inflation and to attract foreign capital, i.e. keep the dollar alive. If the dollar starts to plummet - yes, the US export will take off - the living standard will plummet. Argentina, eventhough an extreme example, is a great case. The difference is that the dollar is the current gold standard.
The housing market is financed through debt and the consumer savings are close to zero. Even the consumer spending is financed through debt, via credit cards with low *initial* APRs and home equity lines.
Hmm, wonder what happens with those ARM's when the Fed rate gets to 6%? The consensus is that 7% is what will take the real estate market to burst.
I know, I know. This might seem like an extreme case right now but just wait. We are either heading for a helluva correction or straight into a bear market. Tomorrows CPI numbers will give us a hint as well as the Fed meeting on June 28-29.
My long-term investment bet is as follows:
- Long Gold, Commodities and Emerging Markets (wait for confirmed buy signals after correction)
- Long Energy (after correction)
- Interest generating vechicles (cash)
- Short dollar (can be hedged via emerging market EFTs)
If the CPI doesn't please the markets tomorrow, I think it's going to get pretty obvious that we are going to 5.5% in the short term. Tomorrow's markets will be anything but calm!
The few bulls that are left are arguing funnymentals, FMV (fair market value), growing GDP and fire sale. It's not the first time. In the end of a secular bull market the revenue and earnings growth still *seem* to grow. The analysts are still bullish, promoting the companies that their investment firms are doing business with. The issue *upgrades* when it's time for bigger clients to dump their stocks.
But, the macros always beats the micros. The markets are slowly realizing that the US economy needs higher interest rates to fight inflation and to attract foreign capital, i.e. keep the dollar alive. If the dollar starts to plummet - yes, the US export will take off - the living standard will plummet. Argentina, eventhough an extreme example, is a great case. The difference is that the dollar is the current gold standard.
The housing market is financed through debt and the consumer savings are close to zero. Even the consumer spending is financed through debt, via credit cards with low *initial* APRs and home equity lines.
Hmm, wonder what happens with those ARM's when the Fed rate gets to 6%? The consensus is that 7% is what will take the real estate market to burst.
I know, I know. This might seem like an extreme case right now but just wait. We are either heading for a helluva correction or straight into a bear market. Tomorrows CPI numbers will give us a hint as well as the Fed meeting on June 28-29.
My long-term investment bet is as follows:
- Long Gold, Commodities and Emerging Markets (wait for confirmed buy signals after correction)
- Long Energy (after correction)
- Interest generating vechicles (cash)
- Short dollar (can be hedged via emerging market EFTs)
If the CPI doesn't please the markets tomorrow, I think it's going to get pretty obvious that we are going to 5.5% in the short term. Tomorrow's markets will be anything but calm!
Sunday, June 11, 2006
When The Future Finally Comes
The reason I took time off was that I realized that the future was finally here. That might sound weird to most people but it's actually very simple. All the goals and targets that I set in 1999 when I ventured upon this last adventure had finally been met.
I had elevated myself from working in the local Internet industry to the global arena, improved my langauge skills, travelled the world, paid off my student loans, moved to a warm climate, gotten married and bought a sportscar. What else is there to life?, I thought.
That question was much bigger than I could answer while working 80+ hours a week so I decided to use my passion and focus for problem solving and try to find an answer.
I find that the biggest challenge and reward in life is to partake in the tradition of understanding life. There is no final answer but a very intellectually rewarding process.
The biggest learning so far is that challenging our biggest fears - being unemployed, the anxiety, the future, survive - is what makes life great. Some people are driven by greed and some by fear. I think my driver is fear and I need to challenge my fears to feel fulfilled and alive. To overcome my fears gets my heart beat up and my mind focused.
So my next step in life will be to venture into new unknown waters and that scares me. A feeling I love and embrace cause I know I'll grow and prosper when the reality wants to kick my butt. If I on the other hand would be driven by greed, I'd get back to the corporate tech world to maximize the fruit of my knowledge.
I had elevated myself from working in the local Internet industry to the global arena, improved my langauge skills, travelled the world, paid off my student loans, moved to a warm climate, gotten married and bought a sportscar. What else is there to life?, I thought.
That question was much bigger than I could answer while working 80+ hours a week so I decided to use my passion and focus for problem solving and try to find an answer.
I find that the biggest challenge and reward in life is to partake in the tradition of understanding life. There is no final answer but a very intellectually rewarding process.
The biggest learning so far is that challenging our biggest fears - being unemployed, the anxiety, the future, survive - is what makes life great. Some people are driven by greed and some by fear. I think my driver is fear and I need to challenge my fears to feel fulfilled and alive. To overcome my fears gets my heart beat up and my mind focused.
So my next step in life will be to venture into new unknown waters and that scares me. A feeling I love and embrace cause I know I'll grow and prosper when the reality wants to kick my butt. If I on the other hand would be driven by greed, I'd get back to the corporate tech world to maximize the fruit of my knowledge.
Things To Do Before I Turn 40
1. Snowboard in the Southern Hemisphere - Check!
2. Learn Mandarin - Hmm, does "Ni hao ma?" count?
3. Digitize all my movies - 50% there.
4. Getting rock hard abs - Hmm, not happenin'.
5. Write a book - Time is definitely working against me on this one.
6. Get a sportscar - Check!
7. Perfect the Gratin Dauphinois - Getting darn close.
8. Own a boat - Not happenin'. :(
9. Relax - Oh, yeah!
10. Fluent in Spanish - Almost there...
2. Learn Mandarin - Hmm, does "Ni hao ma?" count?
3. Digitize all my movies - 50% there.
4. Getting rock hard abs - Hmm, not happenin'.
5. Write a book - Time is definitely working against me on this one.
6. Get a sportscar - Check!
7. Perfect the Gratin Dauphinois - Getting darn close.
8. Own a boat - Not happenin'. :(
9. Relax - Oh, yeah!
10. Fluent in Spanish - Almost there...
Saturday, June 10, 2006
Effortless Living
The most magic moments in life are effortless. They have grace, simplicity and beauty. Surfing is a great metaphor. You can paddle your arms off when trying to catch all the wrong waves just to be exhausted when the right one comes along. Let the wave come to you. Only surf the waves that are effortless, that will have enough strength to carry you forward in it's power. Patience and discipline are virtues, not only hard work!
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
I, The Frugalist
I know. It's not a real word but I like it. Aha, aha, I like it.
Man, do I love CALIFORNIA-A. This afternoon, after my usual heavy load of studies, I flip-flipped down to Mollie Stone's (a convinient but not so great grocery store) to grab some cream, milk, curry (Spice Island) and bananas. My plan is to make one of my favorites: Chicken Curry. Quel Surprise!
I paid a premium for the Spice Island curry (+$2) for the specific brand which I seldom do. But curry is that kind of a spice that is so crucial when cooking that you cannot and should not just buy the generic brand. The same goes for meat, chicken and bread.
I've never been a big follower of the so called organice produce. The reason is I don't taste a big difference. I do-do when it comes to meat, chicken, spices and bread. Ah, and coffee beans. So I would argue that it would be very pretentious of me to just follow with my frugal mind being there.
Since I left the 9-2-5 world I've become Mr Frugality. Only spending money on the things that really matters. I might be taking it too far but in these days cash is king. As long as the cash stays in your pocket and not someone elses.
Man, do I love CALIFORNIA-A. This afternoon, after my usual heavy load of studies, I flip-flipped down to Mollie Stone's (a convinient but not so great grocery store) to grab some cream, milk, curry (Spice Island) and bananas. My plan is to make one of my favorites: Chicken Curry. Quel Surprise!
I paid a premium for the Spice Island curry (+$2) for the specific brand which I seldom do. But curry is that kind of a spice that is so crucial when cooking that you cannot and should not just buy the generic brand. The same goes for meat, chicken and bread.
I've never been a big follower of the so called organice produce. The reason is I don't taste a big difference. I do-do when it comes to meat, chicken, spices and bread. Ah, and coffee beans. So I would argue that it would be very pretentious of me to just follow with my frugal mind being there.
Since I left the 9-2-5 world I've become Mr Frugality. Only spending money on the things that really matters. I might be taking it too far but in these days cash is king. As long as the cash stays in your pocket and not someone elses.
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
The Markets
Today the Dow confirmed the new market downtrend by falling to a new low (10926) with higher volume then previous days. The attempted rally that started on May 24 is now dead. The Dow hit bull market highs on May 10 (11709) and it's going to take some time before we are back at those highs again. It's the path of least resistance.
Why? you ask. Well, the Fed's new boss, Bernanke, has communicated that inflation is here and they will fight it at any cost. Investors that think that 25 basis points will be enough on June 28-29 lack the big picture. The Fed will keep raising the interest rates until we see a core inflation well below 2%. The inflation is now being driven by debt financed consumer spending and high energy prices. My guess is that we'll see a Fed rate of 6% within the next year.
Debt is now becoming expensive which will start to hit consumption and real estate valuation. All the 'creative' loans that has been offered over the past few years to lower the living cost short-term, such as only interest, and all the second morgages used to tap the paper growth, will be very expensive. Debt has actually paid for the current growth in consumer spending. I would not want to be a latecomer to a real estate market outside of the job growth areas.
The current, or should I say past, bull market was fueled by a) strong demand created by low interest rates and b) low inflation created by a huge supply of cheaper labor and goods. Simply put, the emerging markets paid for the US consumer spending. The low dollar confirms this.
High energy prices are here to stay and when you know that the Europeans are paying well over $7 for a gallon of gas you realize that $3 is nothing. The new emerging market needs energy and commodities to grow and are prepare to pay for it. The political blame-game is just for show, it's simply just about supply and demand at this point.
I know it's a rather dark picture but we have had a classic 3-4 year long bull market which is now taking a rest, at least in the US. Europe and Japan has taken the tough medicin and is now getting out of their funk. The emerging markets are still rockin and will be for the forseeable future, especially with the commodity prices coming back down a bit.
Conclusion: Cash is king. Don't use your home as a cash machine, don't bottom pick stocks. Hedge the dollar. Pay off loans. Cut the spending, lower your burn rate and stay on the sidelines until there is light in the tunnel. For the risk-taker I'd say short the QQQQ on any bounce.
Why? you ask. Well, the Fed's new boss, Bernanke, has communicated that inflation is here and they will fight it at any cost. Investors that think that 25 basis points will be enough on June 28-29 lack the big picture. The Fed will keep raising the interest rates until we see a core inflation well below 2%. The inflation is now being driven by debt financed consumer spending and high energy prices. My guess is that we'll see a Fed rate of 6% within the next year.
Debt is now becoming expensive which will start to hit consumption and real estate valuation. All the 'creative' loans that has been offered over the past few years to lower the living cost short-term, such as only interest, and all the second morgages used to tap the paper growth, will be very expensive. Debt has actually paid for the current growth in consumer spending. I would not want to be a latecomer to a real estate market outside of the job growth areas.
The current, or should I say past, bull market was fueled by a) strong demand created by low interest rates and b) low inflation created by a huge supply of cheaper labor and goods. Simply put, the emerging markets paid for the US consumer spending. The low dollar confirms this.
High energy prices are here to stay and when you know that the Europeans are paying well over $7 for a gallon of gas you realize that $3 is nothing. The new emerging market needs energy and commodities to grow and are prepare to pay for it. The political blame-game is just for show, it's simply just about supply and demand at this point.
I know it's a rather dark picture but we have had a classic 3-4 year long bull market which is now taking a rest, at least in the US. Europe and Japan has taken the tough medicin and is now getting out of their funk. The emerging markets are still rockin and will be for the forseeable future, especially with the commodity prices coming back down a bit.
Conclusion: Cash is king. Don't use your home as a cash machine, don't bottom pick stocks. Hedge the dollar. Pay off loans. Cut the spending, lower your burn rate and stay on the sidelines until there is light in the tunnel. For the risk-taker I'd say short the QQQQ on any bounce.
Monday, June 05, 2006
Cubanismo
Dinner time is approaching and the need for inspiration is always necessary in the kitchen. Listening to the Cuban group Orishas and their song Distinto from El Kilo. It's what most people would call hip-hip.
I'm pondering the fact that it's so hard to find really good rib-eye here in the US. I guess it's due to the protectionism / isolationism. Meat doesn't look or taste as well as in Argentina, Brazil or Southern Africa. I might just be searching in the wrong places or I might be a crappy chef.
Anywho, we'll have Steak Frite tonight!
I'm pondering the fact that it's so hard to find really good rib-eye here in the US. I guess it's due to the protectionism / isolationism. Meat doesn't look or taste as well as in Argentina, Brazil or Southern Africa. I might just be searching in the wrong places or I might be a crappy chef.
Anywho, we'll have Steak Frite tonight!
I, Bather
I've always preferred baths to showers. Soaking in your own filth while having some soothing music in the background, a puro light up and some nice scented candles does wonders for the soul.
Right, it might not sound very macho but on the other hand, sending of youngsters to foreign countries to die for oil is not very macho either. Rather the contrary.
There is a very strong European but also Asian bathing tradition. The public bath house was the most popular meeting ground before the cafe emerged during the 19th century.
It's not often these days that you hear two buddies say: Hey, let's go and have a bath and catch up. No Siree, that happens very seldom. These days.
But getting really soaked - for a man - must be the equivalent to getting a manicure and pedicure - for a woman. You feel pampered. Your body and mind cleansed. Your thoughts become pure and simple.
My almost daily baths have become a routine and something that I look forward to before I go to bed. A candle, some bath salt, the Sunday NYT and some Bossa Nova makes me feel like I can take on the world. Which I'll never do but who cares. It feels good!
Right, it might not sound very macho but on the other hand, sending of youngsters to foreign countries to die for oil is not very macho either. Rather the contrary.
There is a very strong European but also Asian bathing tradition. The public bath house was the most popular meeting ground before the cafe emerged during the 19th century.
It's not often these days that you hear two buddies say: Hey, let's go and have a bath and catch up. No Siree, that happens very seldom. These days.
But getting really soaked - for a man - must be the equivalent to getting a manicure and pedicure - for a woman. You feel pampered. Your body and mind cleansed. Your thoughts become pure and simple.
My almost daily baths have become a routine and something that I look forward to before I go to bed. A candle, some bath salt, the Sunday NYT and some Bossa Nova makes me feel like I can take on the world. Which I'll never do but who cares. It feels good!
Sunday, June 04, 2006
My Microcosm
Finally things are coming together in my miniscule microcosm. The NY Times Sunday has started to make a big impression. Dave Barry's article "Inaction Heros' was just brilliant. I love the NY attitude and literary cojones and the CA weather.
BA is booked. Looking for ski resorts that caters to the introvert snowboarder. Think I found one.
BA is booked. Looking for ski resorts that caters to the introvert snowboarder. Think I found one.
The Next Big Thing
The tech workers that started at YHOO, EBAY, AMZN, AAPL and GOOG in the fall of 2002 timed the tech market superbly. The probably got a decent amount of stock options and a slightly below average salary. These companies were lean, reorgnized and focused after the 2000-2001 tech massacre. The fortune seekers were long gone, back to the bigger industrial corporations, famous consultancies or back to school for their MBAs.
All these companies saw their stock prices hit new lows in October of 2002. In March 2003 the new bull market took off and over the past - almost 3+ years - we have seen stock appreciations of 3-10x (GOOG probably 50x). The folks that exited in January 2006 nailed the high of all these companies.
This fall we'll see the 4-year anniversary of the 2002 October bottom and since most stock option plans run for 4-years I'm forseeing a tech worker exodus in the fall. One reason why the Yahoo! board approved 8MM new stock options to Semel and another 6MM to four key executives. But will the regular techie get the same kind of wind fall? I doubt it. These days stock options needs to be expensed with a clear impact on earnings. One of the reasons why tech has been down since January and will keep going down.
Big companies don't need to be generous with stock options since the market is flushed with MBAs that care more about salary and career paths than taking risks. Anyone that got onboard AMZN, EBAY and YHOO over the past 2-3 years have seen their stock options move nowhere. Sure, they have been able to offload some of these (if they were smart) during the bull run until January 2006. But in essence, most of these guys are forced to stay and experienceing the darker side of being paid in options.
This creates a great opportunity and market for start-ups that can pick the most experience tech workers. Either lure them away from the bigger companies or grabbing the already exited.
But the real winner is the tech worker that is one the sidelines. A position that is not really thought so much of in the job market but is a sound strategy in the financial markets during times of lackluster trading. The bigger firms will have to pay more to retain their stars while the start-ups are in dire need of smart entreprenurial experience. The compensation is going up.
The key is to figure out where the big money is going and stay ahead of that stream to benefit from it once it starts moving in your direction. Big tech is still in a downtrend and I think we can expect another drop since the Fed is clearly going to push the inflation down and take consumption with it. That's a great envirtment for innovative start-ups to stay focused, worker hard and build value.
People tend to forget that all the innovative work that we have seen from these companies started as ideas back in the beginning of this century. The bet on search, pay-for online music and movies, VoIP, messaging, webmail et cetera happened back in 2002. The next big thing was the social networking sites but they happened outside of big tech and where later aquired by the likes of YHOO, GOOG, Ask, News Corp, MSFT et cetera.
So what is the next big game-changing innovation? That is not clear. There are a few emerging trends but nothing that is monitizable as of yet which supports my hypothesis that we'll see big tech down for the summer until something tangible matrializes.
All these companies saw their stock prices hit new lows in October of 2002. In March 2003 the new bull market took off and over the past - almost 3+ years - we have seen stock appreciations of 3-10x (GOOG probably 50x). The folks that exited in January 2006 nailed the high of all these companies.
This fall we'll see the 4-year anniversary of the 2002 October bottom and since most stock option plans run for 4-years I'm forseeing a tech worker exodus in the fall. One reason why the Yahoo! board approved 8MM new stock options to Semel and another 6MM to four key executives. But will the regular techie get the same kind of wind fall? I doubt it. These days stock options needs to be expensed with a clear impact on earnings. One of the reasons why tech has been down since January and will keep going down.
Big companies don't need to be generous with stock options since the market is flushed with MBAs that care more about salary and career paths than taking risks. Anyone that got onboard AMZN, EBAY and YHOO over the past 2-3 years have seen their stock options move nowhere. Sure, they have been able to offload some of these (if they were smart) during the bull run until January 2006. But in essence, most of these guys are forced to stay and experienceing the darker side of being paid in options.
This creates a great opportunity and market for start-ups that can pick the most experience tech workers. Either lure them away from the bigger companies or grabbing the already exited.
But the real winner is the tech worker that is one the sidelines. A position that is not really thought so much of in the job market but is a sound strategy in the financial markets during times of lackluster trading. The bigger firms will have to pay more to retain their stars while the start-ups are in dire need of smart entreprenurial experience. The compensation is going up.
The key is to figure out where the big money is going and stay ahead of that stream to benefit from it once it starts moving in your direction. Big tech is still in a downtrend and I think we can expect another drop since the Fed is clearly going to push the inflation down and take consumption with it. That's a great envirtment for innovative start-ups to stay focused, worker hard and build value.
People tend to forget that all the innovative work that we have seen from these companies started as ideas back in the beginning of this century. The bet on search, pay-for online music and movies, VoIP, messaging, webmail et cetera happened back in 2002. The next big thing was the social networking sites but they happened outside of big tech and where later aquired by the likes of YHOO, GOOG, Ask, News Corp, MSFT et cetera.
So what is the next big game-changing innovation? That is not clear. There are a few emerging trends but nothing that is monitizable as of yet which supports my hypothesis that we'll see big tech down for the summer until something tangible matrializes.
Saturday, June 03, 2006
The Housing Bubble
The talk of the town is if we are currently in a housing bubble (and have been for some time). The interest rates are up, the housing inventories (supply) are building up but we still have high employment rate (demand). At least in Northern California.
The ask prices doesn't seem to have come done but bidding wars seems to be less frequent. The summer is usually the slow season for real estate so I guess we'll get the first indications of the lay of the land in the fall.
One thing is clear, the folks that bought real estate when the Fed rate was 1% and choose one of the riskier morgage solutions on a tight budget won't sleep well at night.
Friday, June 02, 2006
Six Weeks in BA
It's Friday afternoon (now evening) and the ritual is to open a bottle of wine, have some cheese and talk about the past weeks accomplishments and the coming weeks expectations. Ah, just kidding - that was when both of us were doing the gold 'ol nine-2-five.
Tonight we've been planning our next vacation. We went through the possible dream destinations - Cape Town, Mumbai, Tokyo, Santiago, Buenos Aires, Havana, Paris, Saigon - and realized that only BA had the right weather (i.e. no thunderstorms), the right price and being off-season. Possible Santiago as well eventhough the average temperature is on the low side.
Once that was sorted we (i.e. I) started to look for good flight deals. I had imagined that during the official off-season BA flights would be inexpensive but they are not. I guess the airlines are getting smarter with adapting supply to demand.
So what do one do for six weeks in BA? Well, for starters eat. The cuisine is brilliant and fairly inexpensive. Then you have all the museums and exhibitions. But don't forget that it's officially winter season and all the mounatains have excellent skiing. In that context, six weeks is but a breeze.
Tonight we've been planning our next vacation. We went through the possible dream destinations - Cape Town, Mumbai, Tokyo, Santiago, Buenos Aires, Havana, Paris, Saigon - and realized that only BA had the right weather (i.e. no thunderstorms), the right price and being off-season. Possible Santiago as well eventhough the average temperature is on the low side.
Once that was sorted we (i.e. I) started to look for good flight deals. I had imagined that during the official off-season BA flights would be inexpensive but they are not. I guess the airlines are getting smarter with adapting supply to demand.
So what do one do for six weeks in BA? Well, for starters eat. The cuisine is brilliant and fairly inexpensive. Then you have all the museums and exhibitions. But don't forget that it's officially winter season and all the mounatains have excellent skiing. In that context, six weeks is but a breeze.
My Neighbor
We live in this rent controlled building which means what ever happens with interest rates (cost), unemployment rates (demand) and housing inventories (supply), our rent is not going up or down.
That means that we have people that have been living here for a long, long time. There are only two words to described most of them: demanding and excentric. They love to remind you about things that you would assume being common knowledge but also about their own little querks.
I'm trying to avoid most of the neighbors since they always have some sort of 'friendy' recommendation in store as a paternal advice or just as an icebreaker.
Today when I took the elevator from the first floor to head up it first went down to the bottom floor to pick up some more passenger. I always dread when that happens since I have a strong dislike for spending time alone in an elevator with people that I don't know.
Fortunately, in came the one and only charismatic and very friendly bachelor from the seventh floor. He reminded me of a playboy from Bahrain that I once new in London. Always happy, smiling, polite and open-minded.
My neighbor shared that he had been on a beautiful walk on his day off and asked if I worked from home. No, I've taken one year off, I said with a grin larger than life.
He lit up like a Christmas tree: So what are you doing, he said.
Nothing, I said.
He laughed. Brilliant, he said. I've been thinking of taking some time off for a while now. Getting close to doing it.
Well, I said, it took me about one year to get the courage to do so and it was a brilliant decision. The first few months felt a little anxious but once we headed off from San Francisco to avoid all the urgency, the traffic and the stress everything felt great. I think its important to avoid the working life and working people when you have time off.
My newest friend and neighbor laughed again: Well, thanks for encouraging me to get closer to pulling the trigger, he said.
Man, what a day. Just running into an intelligent person that has seen the light and ready to act. Nothing feels better than to share your experiences and help people to reach their potential.
I need to think about that the next time when I meet the fat lady with all the bags in the elevator. She might need som encouragement as well.
That means that we have people that have been living here for a long, long time. There are only two words to described most of them: demanding and excentric. They love to remind you about things that you would assume being common knowledge but also about their own little querks.
I'm trying to avoid most of the neighbors since they always have some sort of 'friendy' recommendation in store as a paternal advice or just as an icebreaker.
Today when I took the elevator from the first floor to head up it first went down to the bottom floor to pick up some more passenger. I always dread when that happens since I have a strong dislike for spending time alone in an elevator with people that I don't know.
Fortunately, in came the one and only charismatic and very friendly bachelor from the seventh floor. He reminded me of a playboy from Bahrain that I once new in London. Always happy, smiling, polite and open-minded.
My neighbor shared that he had been on a beautiful walk on his day off and asked if I worked from home. No, I've taken one year off, I said with a grin larger than life.
He lit up like a Christmas tree: So what are you doing, he said.
Nothing, I said.
He laughed. Brilliant, he said. I've been thinking of taking some time off for a while now. Getting close to doing it.
Well, I said, it took me about one year to get the courage to do so and it was a brilliant decision. The first few months felt a little anxious but once we headed off from San Francisco to avoid all the urgency, the traffic and the stress everything felt great. I think its important to avoid the working life and working people when you have time off.
My newest friend and neighbor laughed again: Well, thanks for encouraging me to get closer to pulling the trigger, he said.
Man, what a day. Just running into an intelligent person that has seen the light and ready to act. Nothing feels better than to share your experiences and help people to reach their potential.
I need to think about that the next time when I meet the fat lady with all the bags in the elevator. She might need som encouragement as well.
Thursday, June 01, 2006
My Ground Zero
It's nice to have come to a place in life when you don't really care about everyone's implicit or explicit expectations.
There are too many people that refuse to embrace life and their own desires, and fall victim of not enjoy their time-off, not eating meat, not drinking wine, having to workout et cetera. I called these people the Not-Generation.
I'm enjoying a great blend of working out a little bit, drinking wine (a lot), sleeping in (or not), thinking (all the time) and watching movies (every evening). My mission is to get back to who I really am, to find myself in this world of expectations and demands. My ground zero if you will.
"Health nuts are going to feel stupid some day, laying in a hospital dying of nothing." Idiotsyncrasies.com
There are too many people that refuse to embrace life and their own desires, and fall victim of not enjoy their time-off, not eating meat, not drinking wine, having to workout et cetera. I called these people the Not-Generation.
I'm enjoying a great blend of working out a little bit, drinking wine (a lot), sleeping in (or not), thinking (all the time) and watching movies (every evening). My mission is to get back to who I really am, to find myself in this world of expectations and demands. My ground zero if you will.
"Health nuts are going to feel stupid some day, laying in a hospital dying of nothing." Idiotsyncrasies.com
The Big Novel
I've been writing since I can remember. Mostly ironic and sarcastic stories about the wacky world we live in. In many cases just personal reflections on things that I see, encounter and think about.
I really enjoy creating and sharing stories from my reality. By reality, I mean my most subjective reflections and views as opposed to the more rigorous established truths and facts.
One of my favorite subjects is the stupidity of crowds. A crowd of people can do pretty weird things together, things that they would never do as individuals. Crowds are much more accepting of idiosyncrasies. Hitler, Enron, appointment viewing, 9-5 being but a few. Most people hang on to crowd behaviour as a way to belong, to feel needed, to confirm their existence.
Once in a while I'm being asked why I don't write a novel. I would lie if I said I haven't thought about it. But a great novel should leave you breathless and not just feed your bank account and until I find that killer idea this blog has to do.
I really enjoy creating and sharing stories from my reality. By reality, I mean my most subjective reflections and views as opposed to the more rigorous established truths and facts.
One of my favorite subjects is the stupidity of crowds. A crowd of people can do pretty weird things together, things that they would never do as individuals. Crowds are much more accepting of idiosyncrasies. Hitler, Enron, appointment viewing, 9-5 being but a few. Most people hang on to crowd behaviour as a way to belong, to feel needed, to confirm their existence.
Once in a while I'm being asked why I don't write a novel. I would lie if I said I haven't thought about it. But a great novel should leave you breathless and not just feed your bank account and until I find that killer idea this blog has to do.
The Big 4-0 - Slacker Style
I'm spending my last few months in my 30's doing what I like and do best: slacking. To most people slacking is synonymous with doing nothing, lacking ambition or being of non-value. To me and my proud slacker friends it means doing what you are passionate about with a focus and an intensity that few have.
To think of it, some of the best inventions have come from so called lazy men that have tried to find smarter and more efficient ways of doing things.
"Progress isn't made by early risers. It's made by lazy men
trying to find easier ways to do something." Robert Heinlein
A slacker is a brutally efficient person that cuts all the semi-important stuff to give all energy to the real important stuff. Slackers are frugal with their time, money and energy. Nothing should be wasted.
A slacker is someone that has a natural inner drive that doesn't turn on at nine and off at five. It's constantly working, looking for opportunities to do things smarter and more effiencet.
Brendon Connelly as written a brilliant Slacker @ Work manifesto. He's spot on.
You never have to ask a slacker to do something important cause if it really is - to him / her - there is a high probability it's already done.
My latest slacker project is to ripp our favorite movies (100+) so they can be accessed online, via home network, played on the iPod, home flat-screen and in any hotel room or any TV for that matter. I'm spending 2 minutes per movie, i.e. 200 minutes (3.3 hrs) in total. Not bad for 200 hrs of entertainment. That's a 6000% ROI!
To think of it, some of the best inventions have come from so called lazy men that have tried to find smarter and more efficient ways of doing things.
"Progress isn't made by early risers. It's made by lazy men
trying to find easier ways to do something." Robert Heinlein
A slacker is a brutally efficient person that cuts all the semi-important stuff to give all energy to the real important stuff. Slackers are frugal with their time, money and energy. Nothing should be wasted.
A slacker is someone that has a natural inner drive that doesn't turn on at nine and off at five. It's constantly working, looking for opportunities to do things smarter and more effiencet.
Brendon Connelly as written a brilliant Slacker @ Work manifesto. He's spot on.
You never have to ask a slacker to do something important cause if it really is - to him / her - there is a high probability it's already done.
My latest slacker project is to ripp our favorite movies (100+) so they can be accessed online, via home network, played on the iPod, home flat-screen and in any hotel room or any TV for that matter. I'm spending 2 minutes per movie, i.e. 200 minutes (3.3 hrs) in total. Not bad for 200 hrs of entertainment. That's a 6000% ROI!
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