Calling The Bottom is a Fools Game

If I could get a cent for everyone that called a market bottom and failed I'd be a billionaire.

We are far from being out of the woods. All the indicies are way down and the Wednesday revearsal needs to be confirmed as a real rally by price and volume. The beginning of next week will be crucial. If we don't see the markets rally on strong volume our third attempted rally will be killed. One wonder, how many do you need to realize we are heading into a recession?

The 11000 level is irrelevant in a downtrend. The fact that the Dow bounced off the resistance at the 11040 level showd that this week's bounce was merely technical. You want the Dow to get passed 11100-11150. The Dow needs to make new higher highs and new higher lows. Only a follow-through of 1.7% or more on strong volume would confirm the current attempted rally.

The probability that the Fed will raise the rate on June 28-29 is 100%. Another rate hike on August 8 is also very likely. We have had 3 consecutive months of 0.3% growth in core inflation which computes to above 3% on a yearly basis. That's far beyond the target of 1-2%. My guess is that we are heading to an interst rate of 6% by end of year to contain the inflation and keep the dollar alive.

Traders LOVE volatility. The past 5 weeks have kicked ass. A trader doesn't really take any sides except where the money is flowing. This is a trader's market.

In other words, I highly doubt that the market has bottomed but that is actually irrevelant. Bottom fishing and top picking is for losers. There is actually no value in a bottom or a top except that it creates false hope that is tradable. You trade the meat of the run, not the ends.